The Cost of Waiting
April 7th, 2010 categories: Economic Recovery, FSBO's, For Buyers, For Homeowners, For Sellers, Housing Market, Mortgage Info, Taxes
This article was written by and provided courtesy of Michael Wallace, a Mortgage Banker from Chicago Bancorp.
First-time home buyers and move-up buyers must be under contract by April 30th in order to receive their respective $8000 and $6500 tax credits. A lot of people are taking advantage of this and it has stirred up a lot of activity, particularly in the first-time buyer category. Prices have dropped over the last few years, rates are at historic lows and the government wants to give buyers a big check. It’s a perfect scenario for buyers right? But there are still some people out there sitting on the fence and wondering if buying in the current economy and real estate market is a good idea. I’ve crunched the numbers on what I consider to be 6 likely scenarios.
The Cost of Waiting
Let’s look a pretty typical first-time buyer scenario. $250,000 condo purchase using the popular 3.5% down payment FHA 30 year fixed mortgage at 5.125%. The monthly mortgage payment would be $1314 per month, the down payment would be $8750 and Uncle Sam would be sending a check for $8000. Let’s also assume that the buyer remains in the home for 5 years.
What if #1 - 1 year from now real estate prices remain the same and mortgage rates remain the same
Cost of waiting = $8,000…no check from Uncle Sam.
What if #2 - 1 year from now real estate prices remain the same but mortgage rates are 1% higher
Cost of waiting = $17,120. The mortgage payment would be $1466 per month. Over 5 years this is an additional $9120 in payments and the $8000 check is missing.
What if #3 - 1 year from now real estate prices are 5% lower and mortgage rates are the same
Cost of waiting = $3603. The mortgage payment would be $1248. Over 5 years this saves $3960 in payments. The down payment is $438 less. But the missing $8000 still makes the cost of waiting an expensive decision.
What if #4 - 1 year from now real estate prices are 5% lower and mortgage rates are 1% higher
Cost of waiting = $12,302. Even with a smaller loan amount, the increase in rate would increase the monthly mortgage to $1393. Over 5 years this adds up to $4740 more in payments. The down payment would be reduced, but only by $438. Add in the loss of the $8000 and again the cost of waiting is not good.
What if #5 - 1 year from now real estate prices are 5% higher and mortgage rates are the same
Cost of waiting = $12,338. The loan amount would be larger resulting in a monthly payment of $1379. Over 5 years this adds to $3900 more in payments. The down payment is $438 higher and the $8000 is not in the picture.
What if #6 – 1 year from now real estate prices are 5% higher and mortgage rates are 1% higher
Cost of waiting = $21,938. The higher loan amount and higher interest rate result in a monthly payment of $1539. Over 5 years this adds up to $13,500 more in payments. Add the missing $8000 and the $438 more in down payment and this becomes quite costly.
Written by Michael Wallace 03/27/2010
Contact Michael Wallace
(312)738-6051
michaelw@chicagobancorp.com
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