Crain’s quoted numbers from Moody’s Analytics saying that the Chicago-area economy should grow by about 1.6 percent in the first half of 2012 and by about 2 percent for the full year. These numbers sound positive until you consider that six months ago Moody’s predicted that the Chicago-area economy would grow by about 4 percent in 2012.

Crain’s points to the economic uncertainty caused by unstable financial markets and European debt worries. This, the story says, has made employers overly cautious when making new job hires.

Because of this, Moody’s is predicting that the unemployment rate in the Chicago area will jump to 11.4 percent in the first half of 2012. That’s up from 10.6 percent in the second half of 2011. Six months ago, Moody’s predicted that the Chicago-area unemployment rate would stand at 9.2 percent in the first half of 2012.

This is bad news, too, for the Chicago housing market. Buyers won’t be as willing to invest in a new home if they’re still worried about losing their jobs. And as Moody’s numbers show, Chicagoans have little reason to be optimistic about the safety of their jobs.

Just because a new year has started, it doesn’t mean that Chicago, and the rest of the nation, don’t still face serious challenges. Until unemployment finally falls, expect the Chicago housing market to struggle.

This latest news points out once again how important it is for home sellers to work with a skilled REALTOR® to set the right price for their condominiums or single-family homes. Buyers today are smart; they won’t overpay for a home. Those sellers who do set an unrealistic asking price will see their residence sit on the market for months, ignored by today’s savvy home buyers.

But there is some good news regarding the retail giant: Of the store closings the company recently posted on its Web site, none are located in Chicago or Illinois.

GlobeSt.com reported that Sears, in late December, listed 79 of the 100 to 120 stores it plans to close. Not one of these stores is located in Illinois, and GlobeSt.com wonders whether the large tax break that the state recently approved for Sears had something to do with this.

Also in December, Gov. Pat Quinn signed a law to give Sears a tax cut of $150 million during a 10-year period. This move came after Sears threatened to move out of the state.

This hasn’t been a good year for Sears. GlobeSt.com reported that the retailer saw its comparable store sales fall 2.6 percent for the year and 5.2 percent since late October. The 100 to 120 stores that Sears closes should save the retailer about $170 million, according to the GlobeSt.com story.

It’s possible to argue the merits of giving companies such large tax breaks. It’s possible, too, to debate whether Sears’ recent tax cut played a role in its decision to not close any of its Illinois stores.

But it’s not possible to argue that Sears’ decision to spare Illinois and Chicago any store closings is a boon to the area. And, remember, anything that helps the local economy also helps the Chicago-area housing market.

Buyers are more likely to spend money if they feel more confident about the local economy. And confident buyers are essential to the health of the Chicago housing market.

So there’s one thing to agree on here: The fact that Sears is keeping its Chicago stores open is good news for everyone in the city.

Now comes word that the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has made its own mistakes when it comes to reporting the number of homes sold each month across the United States.

According to a story by MSN Real Estate, the national association over-reported the number of homes sold from 2007 to 2010. This means that even fewer homes were sold last year than the 4.91 million — the lowest number already in 13 years — that NAR reported.

The association says that it will release its new updated numbers on Dec. 21.

It looks like the errors could be large. The national association began looking at its past numbers after CoreLogic, a real-estate analysis firm, challenged the association’s numbers, saying that they could be as much as 20 percent too high.

According to MSN Real Estate, CoreLogic’s analysis showed that there actually should have been 3.3 million homes sold in the United States in 2010. That’s a big drop from the national association’s 4.91 million number.

After looking at their numbers, officials from NAR said that they have counted some home sales twice.

This is an unfortunate time for NAR to be proven wrong about its sales numbers. Many consumers already have negative feelings about the real estate industry. A mistake like this will only provide more fuel for this distrust.

But no matter whether you use the numbers from CoreLogic or those from NAR, one piece of information remains true: The number of home sales across the country remains far too low, especially when compared to the big home-selling pre-2007.

That’s why the news from the Chicago-based Woodstock Institute was so welcome: The organization reported that housing foreclosures in the city of Chicago fell 9.6 percent in the third quarter of this year when compared to the same time period one year earlier.

These numbers buck the trend in the rest of the state. The six-county Chicago region, which, of course, includes the nearby Chicago suburbs, saw housing foreclosures rise 18 percent in the third quarter.

The numbers might cause people to look at foreclosure differently. We’re used to thinking of housing foreclosures as a city problem. We automatically think that homeowners in the inner city are the ones most in danger of losing their homes.

The Woodstock Institute numbers, though, tell a different tale. This time, foreclosures are spreading to the middle- and even upper-end homeowners of the suburbs. For instance, in Lake County, home to such wealthy suburbs as Lake Forest and Highland Park, housing foreclosures were up nearly 83 percent from a year earlier. In west suburban Kane County, home to the wealthy suburb of Geneva, housing foreclosures were up 96.6 percent.

To be fair, these counties still have far fewer housing foreclosures than does Cook County, so their sample size is far smaller. But the trends can’t be ignored: Housing foreclosure is a serious issue for all homeowners, no matter how ritzy a neighborhood in which they live. It’s why the federal government’s loan modification program, the Making Home Affordable program, is so important. It gives qualifying homeowners the chance to modify their existing home loans so that they can more easily make their mortgage payments. You can learn more about the program here.

We should support anything that reduces the number of foreclosures. According to the government’s latest statistics, about 5,000 loan modifications were in progress as of Oct. 8.

If you don’t think foreclosure is a problem that you’ll ever have to worry about, think again: You never know when you or your neighbor might suddenly have trouble paying the mortgage.

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The United Nations is about to find this out.

Raquel Rolnik, the UN Special Rapporteur on Housing, is scheduled to visit seven major cities in the United States to determine just how affordable housing is in this country. She began her tour Oct. 27 with a stop at Fernwood United Methodist Church in the city’s Roseland neighborhood.

I’m not sure what Rolnik thinks about Chicago housing after her visit to Roseland. But she should know that housing in the city, whether we’re talking about condominiums or single-family homes, while not cheap is far more affordable today than it’s been since the housing boom started.

According to statistics from the Illinois Association of REALTORS®, the median sales price of single-family homes, condominiums and townhomes came in at $225,000 in September. That might seem high, but it’s actually down 16.2 percent compared to the median price of $268,600 one year earlier.

To me, this is evidence that it’s possible to find a quality house in a good Chicago neighborhood at a reasonable, if not cheap, price. And housing here has traditionally been a good value, with homeowners generally seeing their residences increase in value if they hold onto them long enough, say five or seven years.

Where many buyers struggle financially when buying Chicago homes is in coming up with enough money for a down payment. Fortunately, many FHA loans still require down payments of as little as 3.5 percent of a home’s purchase price. The first-time homebuyer tax credit of $8,000, along with the new move-up tax credit of $6,500 that Congress is considering now, are a big help in making homes feel more affordable in the city, too.

Housing prices are never going to be low in a city that is as popular and offers as many amenities as Chicago. Housing values are a direct result of location, and Chicago happens to be a location that many people want to call home. But I think you’ll find that for such a major city, Chicago actually boasts relatively affordable housing prices. Don’t believe me? Try finding affordable housing in Los Angeles, San Francisco or New York City.

Again, I have no idea what that U.N. official thinks, but for my money, Chicago is a terrific housing buy.

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And in my opinion, few announcements would give as a big a push to the local economy as the news that the 2016 Olympic Games will be coming to Chicago.

As you undoubtedly know, Mayor Daley and the City of Chicago are vying to become the host city for the Olympics. To date, it looks like Chicago’s biggest competitor for this honor is Rio de Janeiro.

We’ll know for sure whether Chicago lands the Olympics on Oct. 2. That’s when the 100-member International Olympic Committee will choose between Chicago, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Tokyo to host the big event.

This may not seem like a real estate story. But, really, it is.

Chicago’s housing industry is just now emerging from what was a rather devastating real estate slump. Housing prices and sales dropped dramatically in many parts of the city. Today, though, this is changing. Housing sales are rising here, and so are prices. In the city’s top neighborhoods, places like Roscoe Village, Lincoln Square, Lincoln Park, Ravenswood, Lakeview and River North, condominiums and single-family homes are beginning to sell at more normalized rates and prices.

But this recovery is still in its beginning stages. Any positive news from the city of Chicago will help the recovery gain traction. And landing a hosting gig for the Olympics would qualify as positive news indeed.

That’s because the Olympics will generate new jobs in the city. It will funnel huge amounts of tourism dollars into the city’s coffers. And in preparation for the Olympics, the city will pour money into renovating not just specific sites, but entire neighborhoods.

I know many have concerns about the Olympics coming in. They wonder how we’ll handle traffic. They worry that city taxpayers will bear the brunt of the financial burden should the Olympic Games lose money. And, this being Chicago, they worry about the opportunity for corruption and fraud that will come with the city hosting the games.

These concerns are legitimate. But the benefits of hosting the Olympics are huge. The Games can provide an extra push to not only Chicago’s economy, but to its housing market, too.

So let’s hope that in early October, we’re all celebrating the big news that the Olympics will be coming to Chicago in 2016.

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Well, Macy’s hasn’t. And life has gone on. In fact, I imagine most Chicagoans still refer to the hulking store on State Street as Marshall Field’s, just like many White Sox fans still think of U.S. Cellular Field as Comiskey Park.

In other words, the uproar over Macy’s name change was much ado about nothing. That’s how I feel, too, about the iconic Sears Tower becoming Willis Tower.

Crain’s Chicago Business ran a story last week about the big name change. Last Thursday, the 110-story skyscraper was officially renamed Willis Tower. Again, some are acting as if Chicago suffered a second Great Fire.

Here’s the truth: I still think of the skyscraper as Sears Tower. Most Chicagoans still think of it as Sears Tower. The odds are against this changing any time soon.

And really, Chicagoans have bigger worries if they’re in the mood to fret. We’re still dealing with a sluggish new-housing market in the city. The city of Chicago is cutting services, and threatening to cut more, because of a significant budget shortfall. And there are very real concerns that if Chicago gets the 2016 Olympics, local taxpayers will end up footing a hefty portion of the bill should the event lose money.

Of course, there are plenty of things to be excited about in the city now, too. Housing sales and prices have gone up during the last four months. If Chicago does get the 2016 Olympics, it will bring even more attention to the city. The public improvements the city is taking on in preparation of the Olympics might boost housing values in several neighborhoods.

On top of all this, Chicago is still a great place to live, with loads of entertainment, shopping and dining options.

Get mad about Sears Tower becoming Willis Tower if you like. Just don’t forget that it probably won’t make much of a difference in anyone’s daily life.

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Here’s what we mean: Just because home values have plummeted in Miami or Las Vegas, that doesn’t mean the same has happened here in Chicago. Unfortunately, too much of the national media cover the housing story as if the United States featured just one giant residential real estate market.

This is inaccurate. It’s misleading. And, unfortunately, it encourages potential buyers to stay on the sidelines and causes sellers too many sleepless nights.

It is true that home values in Chicago have dropped from their peak value, as defined by real estate information provider Zillow, of $267,799 in the second quarter of 2006. But our housing values have dropped nowhere near as significantly as they have in other markets across the country.

According to the latest Zillow Real Estate Market Report, home values in Chicago dropped 5.7 percent in the second quarter of 2008 when compared to the same period one year earlier.

That may sound like bad news. But consider that nationally, home values decreased 9.9 percent during this same period, and you see that the Chicago market is actually far healthier than are most.

Consider this, too: According to Zillow, homes in Chicago actually have appreciated by 3.3 percent over the last five years and 6.9 percent during the last 10 years. This shows that owners, if they hold onto their homes for a significant enough period of time, will still make money when they sell them.

So next time you hear the gloom-and-doom report from the news media, turn off the TV or spin the dial. Things aren’t nearly so bad here in your home town.

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Every time I flipped on a radio news or talk show, I stumbled across one of two stories: The first dealt with the financial troubles of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two largest mortgage providers in the country. The second focused on the spectacular failure of IndyMac Bank, the 32^nd bank failure since 2000.

It’s no wonder that members of the home-buying public are hesitant to jump back into the residential market.

It’s not the media’s fault, of course, that the housing industry is suffering. But it’s human nature to let the blanket coverage of bank failures, mortgage crises and falling housing prices sour both buyers and sellers.

The problem is – and I preach this on a near-daily basis – is that buyers and sellers in Chicago still enjoy a healthy and strong residential market. It’s just hard for us to realize this with the constant barrage of negative housing-industry stories.

Yes, housing prices in Chicago aren’t rising as quickly as they did during the 2001-2006 residential boom. But that boom featured unrealistic housing appreciation. There was no way for any market, in any part of the country, to continue that kind of price growth. But prices here have held steady and have even risen in some of the city’s most desirable neighborhoods. Homeowners here should still view their residences as solid investments.

So don’t let all the national gloom-and-doom reporting scare you away from the Chicago market. The housing business here is healthy.

Maybe it’s best if you just focus on the music stations when in your car.

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You can read the story here.

What truly fascinated me about the story, though, wasn’t the nuts-and-bolts construction information. No, it was the reminder that Chicago now has its own Trump building.

I don’t know if you remember that the Trump site – on Wabash Avenue along the Chicago River in the trendy River North neighborhood – once was home to the old Chicago Sun-Times building. That building was the very definition of an eyesore. It resembled a floating warehouse or barge, and never quite fit into the area.

Trump International, though, is a marvelous, shimmering skyscraper. It’s a worthy addition to Chicago’s famous skyline.

And it’s not the only glamour building in the area. Construction crews are now building the Mandarin Oriental Tower at 215 N. Michigan Avenue, just a healthy walk from the Trump site. Mandarin is another internationally famous name in the residential real estate business. And Chicago will soon have its own Mandarin project, too.

Then there’s the new Shangri-La hotel being built in the under-construction Waterview Tower along the Chicago River at the corner of West Wacker Drive and Clark Street. The Waterview Tower is a big project in its own right, a new luxury condominium tower. The addition of Shangri-La, which is one of the most respected international hotel chains in the world, just adds to the glamour.

Finally, we can’t forget the Chicago Spire being built now along the city’s lakefront west of Navy Pier. This exciting project will be an historic one: The Spire will stand 2,000-feet tall when built, an amazing 150 stories. It will also bring 1,200 condominiums to the area, once construction is complete.

The Spire has attracted international acclaim, thanks in large part to the daring, twisting design created by famed architect Santiago Calatrava. The architect in the past has designed such inspiring buildings as the Olympic Sports Complex in Athens, Greece; the Opera House in Valencia, Spain; and the Milwaukee Art Museum in Milwaukee. The Spire is another example of his innovative design talents.

These are exciting times for real estate in Chicago. We have Trump, Mandarin and Shangri-La all in various phases of completion. How much more star power can you ask for?

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